Financial pundits have been forecasting a crash of the global economic system as bad as or worse than the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2007 through 2009. Interest rates on savings dropped to historic lows and stayed there and even declined below what was once called the Zero Bound. Central Bank interest rates, it was thought, could never drop below zero. And yet in Europe and Japan they have.
Economic growth since the GFC has been, to put it nicely, horrible. Whether you are in business for yourself or are an employee, the situation makes no real sense to you. If you save your money in a bank, you receive next to nothing for it. Even in money market accounts you’ll make far less than inflation is taking away from you. So your only option seems to be to invest in things that the pundits say can crash in value at any time.
Confusion is rational post & pre Global Financial Crisis
If you aren’t rather perplexed by what is going on, you probably don’t understand the situation. If you are reading this, you almost certainly do understand the situation, are perplexed and are looking for a bit of light. Today, perplexity is the name of the game and, as Aristotle rightly said, perplexity ties your mind up in knots.
Aristotle also said that in the midst of perplexity we should first turn to philosophy. Philosophy doesn’t give us answers but it can put us on the road to finding answers. I don’t propose to delve into metaphysics here, but I do want to restate a question asked by Eric Fromm forty years ago: to have or to be? That is the question.
What do you actually want from life?
Practically speaking, any decision you make will be somewhere on the hedonic scale between having and being. Where you want to should be your decision, not society’s default for you. The decisions that you make now in preparation for the next GFC will very much affect the rest of your life. To make those decisions you need to know where on the have/be scale you want to be.
Assume that you are very high on the “have” side of the scale and invest in securities. You may want to stay invested in the markets until it turns, short the market and then reinvest during recovery. You don’t want to see your idle money collapse in value. I.e. you’ll want U.S. Dollars.
If you are instead at the “be” end of the scale, you are likely to be far more interested in asset protection. The craziness of the market from day to day or week to week isn’t of great concern to you. But you still don’t want your savings to collapse – you, too need a U.S. Dollar account.
If, instead of being a securities investor you own your business, given the way the global economy has been acting you’ve probably been finding it difficult to grow. Owners of growing businesses have had to struggle to make it happen. For those whose business is shrinking, the way forward isn’t obvious. The next GFC could do you in. For you, asset protection looms large. You, too need a U.S. Dollar account.
Which comes first?
Company. Self. Family. Which comes first? Which comes second? Today? Tomorrow? Don’t cop out but putting everything as top priority. The next GFC will likely make you pay later for not thinking things through now. Your actions today give you the answer as to which is more important to you. List them as they are. Are you satisfied? Reorder them and then review them every day. Manage your life, don’t let it manage you. Then you can manage your way through the next Global Financial Crisis.
The craziness of negative interest rates
I’ve mentioned the coming GFC but I haven’t mentioned another major trend that is almost certainly going to affect your life if you are reading this. Governments throughout the world are running massive deficits and are doing everything possible to increase their tax income without increasing their tax rates. If you live in an important economy, your government wants all your money that it thinks it deserves. And no matter where you live, it wants to find a way to get it.
Governments are grasping at straws
You want your money to pay your bills and to invest. Your government wants your money to pay its bills and to invest. And they are moving to make that happen. Governments are giant boulders, shifting around as they settle down to a new normal and you are a tiny mouse trying to find your way between them without being crushed.
Americans were the first to feel the sting of this when FATCA was imposed by their government on the global financial community. As the U.S. is the centre of global finance and issues the world’s primary reserve currency, it had the clout to issue demands and make them stick. The result is that for Americans, opening bank accounts outside the U.S. is quite problematic, particularly if they want to use a strong, international bank.
First it was FATCA, now it is CRS, AEOI, BEPS and TIEA
Now the rest of OECD has gotten in on the act. Using FATCA as their model, they are implementing a program call the Common Reporting System (CRS) which provides a standard, FATCA-based reporting format for exchanging data between countries. In many cases they are also implementing the Automatic Exchange of Information (AEOI) which means that tax information will be exchanged between countries automatically. These programs come under the overall rubric of BEPS (Base Erosion and Profit Shifting) which is government-ese for “me first, you later”. There’s a limit to how much of your income you want to share with your government.
BEPS programs are nearly universal
Almost all countries formerly thought to be tax havens have signed on to this convention. All in all, so far one hundred and eleven countries have signed on for implementation in 2016 or 2017. Those folks who were formerly laughing at the poor American expats are themselves casting about for solutions. There aren’t many, although you’ll encounter many companies that purport to have solutions for you. One that I’ve encountered charges $250 for an e-book that gives the names of a number of banks that you could use, but to which I wouldn’t even entrust my enemy’s money. Just sayin’…
Asset preservation is key
Whether you are at the “Have” or the “Be” end of the hedonic scale, you will first and foremost want to preserve your money. To the degree that you gravitate toward the “Have” end of the scale, you’ll want to be able to make your money work for you. Generally speaking, the options that you have for banking abroad do not provide the opportunity for growing your wealth unless you can come up with the minimum of five million dollars that you’ll need for a placement with a private bank. But even then, only certain private banks will be able to provide you with the asset protection that you are looking for.
So whether you are looking to bank five thousand dollars or five million dollars, your asset protection choices have dropped dramatically. The collapsing Euro makes it imperative that you move some or all of your Euros into U.S. Dollars. Hilda Loe Associates can help you with super-safe banks in super-safe jurisdictions. Don’t settle for less.
While you are thinking about where you might want to put some of your funds as part of your Asset Protection & Growth strategy, take a look at the GDP and GDP/capita charts above. They may lead you in an unexpected direction.